Microsoft: Java comatose, W2K holds key to bypass operation

1999-12-07

Java, Java everywhere, such was the vision of Sun when it first launched the language. Java has gone through several incarnations, initially targeting embedded systems and then aimed squarely at knocking Windows off its monopoly perch. These days the battle cry is for the enterprise – a raft of powerful players such as BEA and IBM have been lining up behind the concept of Enterprise Java Beans (EJBs) running on application servers. But they are not there yet, according to Microsoft, who is seizing the opportunity to get to the higher ground.

To bolster its armoury against Java, Microsoft commissioned a survey of 3,000 developers across Europe, from independent market research company Romtec. The findings make interesting reading, particularly as they compare usage of Microsoft technologies and Java/Corba technologies. Across the board of different types of developers, Microsoft COM/DCOM technologies were shown to be holding their own. A growing number, currently running at between 25 and 40% of companies (depending on sector) were shown to be using these components. Users of Java beans, however, lay at around 5-10%, a figure that has remained relatively constant over the past three years. And as for EJBs, developers of EJBs, these barely registered on the scale.

Microsoft advocates will be encouraged by the findings. COM is growing, Java is stuck in the single figure percentage points. Of course, it is likely that Java flag-wavers will dispute the findings – either rebutting the figures with findings of their own, or bringing up the point that these are, after all, statistics which by nature cannot be trusted. Indeed, Bloor Research published a Java survey of its own earlier this year, which conflicts with the Romtec survey. But it is not the intention here to dispute who is right or wrong. The question is – what if Microsoft are perceived to be right?

There was one very interesting fact that came out of the Romtec survey. This was, year on year, a substantially greater number of development houses planned to adopt Java-related technologies in the next year. Year on year, it would appear, the adoption of Java may have been put off. Anyone who has worked in a development shop will know the difficulties of delivering existing applications and will recognise this conflict between hope and reality.

By focusing their efforts on enterprise applications, Microsoft may well be cutting Java off at the pass. There is a general feeling that Windows NT and its associated technologies have proved insufficient for Enterprise applications, and have preferred to adopt platforms from the likes of Sun, IBM and BEA. Java has a reputation for being slow but its suppliers build on the tradition of delivering true enterprise environments, hence the expectation of EJB application servers is already positive. Soon, however, Windows 2000 will be trotted out of the Microsoft stable. All signs are that it is performant, available and, most of all, scalable enough for the enterprise.

If Microsoft can hang in there for another three months, they will be in a position to influence the “real soon now” school of Java adoption. That is, those development shops that would love to adopt Java if only they could find the time, and a suitable project, to do so. With surveys such as the one quoted here, the software giant will explain how it has the skills base and the incumbent position already. “You’re right,” development managers will say. “Why change – after all, the MS environment is now mature.” Java shops and developers alike may throw their arms up in horror, bemoaning the closed environment, the upward-spiralling license costs and, most of all, the weakness of fellow developers who fail to adopt the J-vision and succeed only in lining the pockets of the world’s richest man.

So – is this truth or fiction? Ultimately it doesn’t matter. In this topsy-turvy, technological world Microsoft have shown in the past that how marketing skill is at least as important as good product. Even as the jaws of the US justice system attempt to close on the software giant, Microsoft may demonstrate yet again that its message making proves too much for the evangelism of the other camps.

(First published 7 December 1999)