Introducing the Instant Value Equation
(Note: I first wrote this 21 July 2001, but it still seems relevant. I’ve revised to incorporate some more modern examples, for better or worse!)
It was raining today. As I wandered through London between meetings, I made the inevitable mistake of assuming the West End is bigger than it is. Having walked too far down Tottenham Court Road, I realised my mistake (not to mention that I no longer knew exactly where I was). I continued walking, taking a right turn then another, hopefully heading back towards my destination.
Twenty minutes later I arrived, utterly soaked but still with a little spare time. I nurse a cappuccino and, slightly irritated, I wonder which part of my brain prevented me from stopping in a doorway and consulting the map in my pocket. Even as I was walking, I had known that to turn around, to stop and think would ultimately have saved time, but I had marched doggedly on. Why?
The answer, I have decided, lies in the Instant Value Equation – the IVE – which equates to instant benefits minus instant costs. It is not so much that a part of our brain fails to function at such moments. Rather there is a lobe or two, probably located in the more primitive areas at the back of the head, that is functioning very well indeed. At every moment, networks of neurones are calculating the most efficient way to achieve instant value. These make us drink the cold cup of coffee beside us rather than go and boil the kettle, or prevent us from running to catch a bus (remember them) as there will be another one along in a minute. Or indeed, they make us walk on, lost, when a map is close to hand.
The IVE may seem trivial but it is of huge value, particularly for new technologies. Hyped on their own promises, product managers and marketing departments (not to mention the early adopter element of the user community) can concoct plausible uses of the latest gadgets and gizmos, products and packages. However, these hyped up, artificial environments are not the final markets for such goods. Out there, on the streets, in the real world, the true value of any new technology will become apparent. At that point, IVE kicks in.
Consider the Wireless Application Protocol, first proposed in 1998 and lauded as the way of accessing the Web from a mobile device back in the Noughties. Why did it fail? “Because it was rubbish” is a standard response. Not true, I say. WAP was not rubbish – it merely failed the IVE test. WAP did not give anyone (but the most devoted) the instantaneous results that would have resulted in its success. Read the news using WAP? No thanks, it’s easier to wait and listen to the radio. Check share prices? Nah – I’d have to set up access, configure portal settings and wait ten seconds every time, so why bother? Similar criticisms could be levelled at many technologies from early MP3 players (waiting for downloads or format conversions) to workflow systems – you only have to look in the cupboard for discarded gadgets, or for software packages that never made it to their first upgrade, to know it is true. No instant value, no future.
Clearly one could argue that some technologies and applications are more than plug and play. They are complex, they require much time and effort to make them work. The flaw is, that while internal staff may be prepared to wait around (indeed they have no choice) internet-ready potential customers are not. As we have all seen, web sites that don’t provide instant value are passed over. We go web sites we know, rather than looking for something cheaper or better. Even more important, we will drive into town to browse a shop rather than order something from the web in a tenth of the time. Instant value.
On the horizon today are the metaverse and quantum computing, amongst other things. We can all postulate what we might use these for, painting a convincing picture of the future. And what an exciting future it will be! Or will it be, like WAP, a damp squib, touchpaper lit but no big bang. Today, consortia and conferences are packed with punters speculating on what an AI-driven world will look like, or the new possibilities for 5G. Perhaps most importantly, they are struggling with how to make such brave new worlds profitable – why bother providing next generation services that most people don’t want and few are prepared to pay for?
My friends, the answer lies in the IVE, the provision of instant benefit with minimal outlay. Consider SMS and instant custard, Tamagotchi and toasters. Provide instant value, make things simple to the point of triviality, deliver services that solve immediate problems, at an acceptable cost without causing others and you never know – the future may not be such a damp squib after all.
